Nineteen of the past 25 No. 1 picks have been quarterbacks, and we just watched a first round stuffed with passers in 2024. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. is betting that trend rolls on into the 2026 NFL Draft, where his earliest board already features eight quarterbacks with first-round buzz and a three-man race for the top slot.

Kiper’s first wave includes Arch Manning (Texas), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina), Drew Allar (Penn State), Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), and Nico Iamaleava (UCLA). It’s a long runway to April 2026, but early tiers matter: they tell us where scouts will point their cameras this fall and which storylines will shape the board.

Why 2026 could be another QB-heavy draft

The league’s appetite for rookie-deal quarterbacks isn’t slowing. Teams keep reshuffling coaches and play-callers, hunting for cost-controlled passers who can hit fast. That alone tilts boards toward QBs. Add in NIL money and the transfer portal, and timelines get weird: elite players can stay, move, or reset their careers without losing leverage. That’s central to Kiper’s note on Arch Manning—he expects a big third year at Texas, then a real chance Manning chooses to return for more reps and more control over his development.

If Manning waits, the door swings wide for LaNorris Sellers and Drew Allar. Kiper tags both as “LTPers”—guys who “look the part” in size, strength, and mobility. Sellers threw 18 touchdowns in his first year as a starter and checks most of the athletic boxes. Allar has starter traits, and Kiper points to Penn State’s upgraded receiver room in 2025 as a potential spark. If the tape shows faster processing and more consistent ball placement, either one could claim the pole position.

The second tier is the chaos engine. Garrett Nussmeier flashed A-plus stretches at LSU but mixed in multi-interception games; the growth question is about week-to-week control. Cade Klubnik has lived the ups and downs at Clemson—timing, rhythm, and sack avoidance will decide whether he climbs. Sam Leavitt has the dual-threat juice at Arizona State but needs a full-season run to prove it. Fernando Mendoza was thrown into tough spots at Indiana; steady mechanics and decision-making would mean more than raw numbers. Nico Iamaleava at UCLA brings length and arm talent, but he’s working through a program in transition—chemistry and command will be his tell.

This is all projection, and Kiper says that out loud. Quarterback boards move fast in-season. Joe Burrow started 2019 as a mid-round projection and ended the cycle at No. 1. That’s the reminder: someone outside this eight can still crash the party if the tape takes off.

Scouting the early QB field

Arch Manning, Texas: In 2024 he flashed control when handed the keys—nine touchdowns, two picks in 10 games and two starts, plus four rushing scores. The skill that will define his draft window isn’t the highlight stuff; it’s the boring NFL work. Can he step up rather than drift under pressure? Can he rip digs and outs on time without the receiver having to slow up? If he turns third-and-7 into a manageable down with quick decisions and accurate placement, he’ll own the conversation—whether he declares or not.

LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina: The tools are obvious—size, speed, power. He tossed 18 touchdowns in his first year as the guy. Year two is about stacking clean reads and eliminating the one or two throws per game that put the defense back on the field. Watch his footwork on quick game and his eyes against disguised coverage. If he shrinks the mistakes while keeping the explosives, scouts will be all-in.

Drew Allar, Penn State: He looks like an NFL starter and has the arm to hit every quadrant. With help coming at wide receiver, the expectation is more shots and better yards after the catch. The leap will show up in two places: attacking the middle of the field on schedule and staying efficient on third down. If those indicators jump, Allar will sit in the top-pick debate all year.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: When he’s hot, the ball jumps and the offense breathes. The concern is the turnover clusters—too many games with two or more interceptions. The fix is less about being conservative and more about playing with guardrails: throwing with firm feet, taking the profitable checkdown, and knowing when the defense has baited the shot play. If he levels the floor, his ceiling sells itself.

Cade Klubnik, Clemson: He’s seen a lot in a short time. The next step is speeding up his internal clock without losing accuracy. Clemson doesn’t need hero throws if he wins with rhythm and trust. A lower sack rate and a higher early-down success rate would tell us the system and quarterback are finally in sync.

Sam Leavitt, Arizona State: The dual-threat traits pop—designed runs, off-platform throws, second-reaction plays. But small samples don’t win in April. He needs 12-plus games of on-schedule completions, smart throwaways, and a red-zone plan that isn’t just scramble-and-hope. If that shows up, he’ll rise fast.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: Tough situations can help or hurt an evaluation. For Mendoza, it’s about clean mechanics when the pocket muddies and not letting pressure speed him up. If he shows poise, ball security, and the ability to create a first down with his legs without courting hits, scouts will take notice even if the stat line is modest.

Nico Iamaleava, UCLA: The arm is real, and his frame gives him windows most college quarterbacks don’t have. The task is blending that with timing and anticipation. New faces and coaching tweaks make continuity a challenge. If he finds rapport with his top targets and finishes drives, the traits will carry weight.

Quarterbacks don’t throw in a vacuum, and 2025 rosters will shift. Supporting casts will change, offensive lines will graduate starters, and coordinators will shuffle. That means raw stats won’t cut it; teams will live in situational film. The rise or fall of this class will come from a few places scouts obsess over:

• Accuracy when moved off the spot—climbs, hitches, and resets under heat.
• Third-down and two-minute offense—do they win the money downs without panic?
• Middle-of-field throws—digs, seams, and posts thrown on time, not late.
• Turnover profile—cutting the two-bad-decisions-per-game habit.
• Explosives without recklessness—big plays that come from structure, not chaos.
• Designed-run value and sliding—yards gained without unnecessary hits.
• Red-zone efficiency—touch, patience, and mismatch hunting inside the 20.

There’s also the big-picture draft math. Non-QBs will push for top-10 real estate—edge rushers who collapse pockets, left tackles with clean feet, and wideouts who separate. If a defender or tackle grades out as a blue-chipper and the QB group is still sorting itself, teams will pause before forcing the pick. But QB scarcity is real, and demand tends to win out, especially for franchises rebooting their timelines.

Expect volatility. A couple of early road games in loud stadiums can swing opinion. A new play-caller can unlock or stall a QB in a month. And yes, NIL can nudge a star to stay, which would reshuffle 2026 and load up 2027. Kiper frames it that way with Manning: a likely surge this fall, then a decision that could reset the top of the board.

For now, the contours are clear. Manning is the headliner, Sellers and Allar are circling the top spot, and a deep group behind them is fighting for stability and scheme fit. Keep an eye on pressure answers, third-down poise, and how these guys handle the boring throws that keep drives alive. If those boxes get checked, the quarterbacks will own the spring again.